2025년 11월 23일 일요일

North America’s Steel Tariff and Customs Landscape in 2025

 

What Exporters Must Know About the New Trade Rules in the US and Mexico

North America’s steel market has entered a period of rapid regulatory tightening. Both the United States and Mexico have raised tariffs, strengthened customs controls, and intensified their scrutiny of supply-chain routes and origin claims. As a result, exporters now face a more complex environment where tariff costs, origin documentation, and even production pathways can determine market access.

This article summarizes the latest 2025 policies, explains how they affect US-Mexico-Asia trade flows, and outlines what Korean and global steel exporters should prepare for.


1. US–Mexico Steel Trade and Tariff Updates

■ US Section 232 Tariffs (2025 Status)

Under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, the US has imposed national-security-based tariffs on steel and aluminum since 2018. In 2025, the regime became significantly stricter.

Key updates include:

  • As of June 4, 2025, most countries face a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products.

  • Previous exemptions have been largely removed.

  • The United Kingdom remains at 25%.

  • Steel derivatives are assessed based on actual steel content, bringing more products into the tariff scope.

  • General Approved Exclusions (GAEs) and similar waiver processes have been curtailed.

For Mexican exports to the US:

  • Products meeting USMCA rules of origin enter duty-free.

  • Products that fail to meet origin criteria face the full 50% tariff, even if produced in Mexico.

Reflecting the impact, Mexico’s steel exports to the US fell approximately 16.6% in the first half of 2025.


■ What Mexican Exporters Must Check Before Shipping to the US

To secure duty-free entry, exporters must verify:

  • Compliance with USMCA rules of origin

  • Whether the product qualifies as a Section 232 steel item

  • Classification as a steel derivative

  • Updated tariff rates and any derivative-specific requirements

  • Complete documentation including mill certificates and clear production records

A minor origin-documentation error can shift a product from 0% to 50% duty, making strict compliance essential.


■ Mexico’s Tariffs on Imported Steel (Including US-Origin)

Mexico introduced a broad tariff decree in April 2024:

  • 5% to 50% tariffs now apply to 544 HS codes, including steel.

  • The measure is temporary but remains in force until April 2026.

  • FTA-origin goods (such as US-origin products) are exempt from these tariff increases.

  • However, Mexico has tightened customs procedures, including mandatory importer registration and mill certificates.

Even duty-free goods may face delays if documentary requirements are not met.


2. Mexico’s Restrictions on Steel Imports From Asia

On May 29, 2025, the Mexican government imposed restrictions and non-approval measures targeting steel imports from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

The government’s rationale:

Concern over trans-shipment of Chinese steel through Southeast Asia.

Actions taken include:

  • Removing certain mills from the approved exporter list

  • Excluding specific suppliers from Auto Import Notice eligibility

  • Requiring proof of direct production to rule out Chinese origin

Asian exporters must now secure:

  • Documentation verifying non-Chinese origin

  • Transparent supply-chain records

  • Valid registration in Mexico’s approval systems

  • Full mill certification and production flow details

While these measures currently target specific Asian countries, similar scrutiny may expand over time—meaning Korean exporters should monitor developments closely.


3. Risks for Chinese-Origin Steel in the US and Mexico

■ United States

The US maintains multiple layers of restrictions on Chinese steel:

  • Section 232 tariffs

  • Anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD)

  • Enforcement against trans-shipment through third countries

Any product linked directly or indirectly to China risks very high duty rates and potential legal exposure.

■ Mexico

Mexico is also tightening controls:

  • Enhanced monitoring of ASEAN routes suspected of carrying Chinese material

  • Tariff increases (10–50%) on imports from non-FTA countries

  • Stricter verification of production origin

The trend is clear: China-linked supply chains face rising costs and uncertainty across North America.


4. Exporting Korean Steel to the US and Mexico

■ Korean Steel Exports to the US

As of 2025, the US applies:

  • 25% Section 232 tariffs on Korean steel and certain aluminum derivatives

  • Heightened risk of AD/CVD investigations

  • Stricter origin verification and derivative classification rules

For Korean exporters, product classification (HS codes) and mill documentation are now as critical as pricing.

■ Korean Steel Exports to Mexico

Since Korea and Mexico do not have an FTA:

  • Korean steel may fall under Mexico’s 5–50% tariff increase

  • Import approval requirements and mill-certification rules apply

  • Any dependence on Chinese raw materials could trigger additional scrutiny

Korean suppliers must therefore evaluate their full supply chain before entering Mexico.


5. Key Takeaways and Strategic Implications

The defining theme of 2025 is clear:
origin, supply-chain pathways, and production transparency now matter as much as the product itself.

Here are the main implications:

✔ Rules of origin under USMCA are becoming more decisive

To maintain duty-free access:

  • Production steps must be carefully allocated

  • Raw materials must be traceable

  • Origin documentation must be airtight

For companies operating factories in Mexico, production design and local value-added ratios will determine tariff exposure.

✔ Trans-shipment risk is a major regulatory trigger

Both the US and Mexico are aggressively targeting Chinese supply-chain links.
Any company using Chinese billets, slabs, or coils must fortify its documentation.

✔ Higher tariffs are reshaping downstream industries

A 25–50% tariff environment pushes costs upward across:

  • Construction

  • Automotive

  • Machinery

  • Consumer durables

Steel exporters must incorporate tariff scenarios into contract structures, pricing models, and long-term supply agreements.

✔ Compliance and documentation are becoming strategic capabilities

In today’s environment, a competitive exporter is not only a producer, but also a company that:

  • Manages origin matrices

  • Audits supply-chain routes

  • Prepares complete mill certificates

  • Builds customs-ready documentation systems

This is evolving into a core business competency for steel companies in North America.


Conclusion

The North American steel market in 2025 is defined by heightened tariffs, tighter customs controls, and increased sensitivity to supply-chain origins. The United States’ move to 50% tariffs and Mexico’s restrictions on Asian steel are likely to shape the market for years to come.

For Korean and global steel exporters, the path to success in North America is no longer just about competitive pricing—it requires strategic planning across origin compliance, documentation, and supply-chain design.

The companies that adapt to this new environment will be the ones that maintain stable access to the world’s largest steel-consuming region.


2025년 11월 3일 월요일

The Ongoing Reshaping of North America’s Steel Industry — and the Emerging Leadership Contest Among Asian Mills

The North American steel industry is undergoing a profound transformation.

In late September, POSCO and Cleveland-Cliffs signed an MOU that signals far more than a simple business partnership. Beneath the surface lies a clear narrative: a new competitive dynamic between Japanese and Korean steelmakers on American soil.

Japan’s Nippon Steel has already completed its acquisition of U.S. Steel, securing a firm industrial and political foothold in the United States. At the same time, ArcelorMittal Calvert has finalized its equity restructuring and begun commissioning a new environmentally friendly Electric Arc Furnace (EAF), which will enter full commercial operation next year.

On the Korean side, Hyundai Steel is moving forward with its new EAF investment project in Louisiana, while POSCO is deepening its partnership with Cleveland-Cliffs to expand its footprint in the automotive steel segment. Taken together, these developments suggest that the North American market is evolving into a structure led by one dominant player (Japan) and two strong challengers (Korea’s POSCO and Hyundai Steel).

However, market leadership will not be determined by scale or capital alone. In the end, the decisive factors will be strategy, supply chain agility, and leadership quality—the ability to read market transitions and execute decisively.


Automotive Steel as the Strategic Core

Asian steelmakers share one strategic focus in North America: automotive-grade steel.
While construction and energy still represent large demand segments, the automotive industry offers a rare combination of high value, technological intensity, and alignment with sustainability goals. With the global shift toward electric vehicles (EVs), demand for advanced materials—such as electrical steel, ultra-high-strength steel (AHSS), and motor core materials—is surging. Both Japanese and Korean producers hold world-class expertise in these categories, and North America is becoming the stage on which their competitive capabilities are being tested.


Mexico’s Rise as a Strategic Hub

This realignment is not confined to the United States. Mexico is rapidly emerging as a new production and supply hub for the region. Ternium is preparing to launch its new EAF in 2026, along with a PLTCM that will soon begin full-scale production. With more than four million vehicles produced in 2024, Mexico now fulfills the USMCA’s regional value requirements and provides a stable base for local steel sourcing. ArcelorMittal, meanwhile, has expanded its Lázaro Cárdenas facility from slab production to hot-rolled coil (HRC), strengthening the Mexico–U.S. southern corridor as a vital supply chain axis.


Japan and Korea: Competition Through Cooperation

In many ways, the North American steel market now represents

“competition within cooperation — and coexistence within competition.”

Japan leverages its traditional strengths—technological sophistication and system integration—while Korea brings flexibility, faster decision-making, and a more agile supply chain model. Both nations are positioning themselves at the core of the EV supply chain,  supplying advanced electrical steels, corrosion-resistant sheets, and ultra-high-strength products that define the next era of automotive materials. This competition is no longer about simple market share—it’s a contest over who will lead the next generation of steel innovation.


Leadership in the New Era of Steel

And at the center of this transformation stand Japan and Korea. Beyond technology or capital, what will ultimately define success is leadership—the vision and decisiveness to navigate uncertainty and act with clarity. True leadership is not about reacting to change, but shaping it. In that sense, the evolving contest between Asian steelmakers in North America is more than a corporate rivalry—it’s a test of leadership itself.